Nebius Group Faces Volatility Ahead of Short-Term Rebound Amid Strong Analyst Support

Technical Analysis

Nebius Group (NBIS) closed June 25 at $48.52, down 4.90% on notable volume of 8.39 million shares, below its 12.75 million average. The stock recently consolidated after hitting a high of $54.59, close to its 52-week peak of $55.04. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65, signaling approaching overbought conditions but still room for momentum. The 50-day ($35.57) and 200-day ($30.58) moving averages confirm a sustained bullish trend, well below the current price, supported by a positive MACD (5.26) indicating upward momentum over the past three months. The Average True Range (ATR) of $7.63 illustrates elevated volatility. Key technical support resides near $48.28, with resistance at $51.02. The stop-loss at approximately $46.05 suggests prudent risk containment.

For the next trading day (June 26), technical signals suggest potential stabilization near support levels with possible modest upside toward the $49-$51 range as buyers absorb the recent sell-off. For the upcoming week, the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and bullish moving average crossovers support a short-term rebound, targeting near-term resistance at $51 and possibly retesting highs around $54, barring broader market weakness.

Fundamental Analysis

NBIS operates as a leading AI infrastructure provider, with competitive advantages anchored in proprietary supercomputers and integrated AI solutions. Despite the solid growth outlook, the trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) remain negative at -$1.65, resulting in a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -31.73, reflecting ongoing investment in technology and growth rather than profitability. Market capitalization stands at $12.46 billion, situating NBIS as a mid-cap technology company positioned within a high-growth AI sector.

The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation indicates a very low intrinsic value of approximately 11 cents per share, suggesting the current market price heavily factors in expected future cash flows and growth potential rather than current cash generation. This DCF figure underscores the speculative nature of the valuation, common for AI infrastructure firms still in investment phases. Upcoming earnings on July 28, 2025, will be critical for assessing operational progress and potential pathway to profitability.

Analyst consensus paints NBIS as a “Buy” with a target median of $51, slightly above current levels, supported by three buy ratings and zero holds or sell views. Fundamental assessments highlight NBIS’s clean balance sheet and vertical integration as differentiators versus peers, implying longer-term outperformance potential. The recent news flow emphasizes institutional confidence in its AI infrastructure thesis and competitive positioning, despite present volatility.

Intrinsic Value and Long-term Potential

The disparity between current price and DCF intrinsic value points to a growth-driven valuation premised on accelerating AI adoption and Nebius’s role within it. If the company can translate its technological strengths into revenue acceleration and margin expansion, the gap between intrinsic value and market price may narrow upwardly over time. However, near-term negative earnings and high volatility indicate risk. Long-term investors should monitor progress on earnings improvement, cash flow generation, and market share gains in the AI infrastructure space.

Overall Evaluation

NBIS represents a high-beta, growth-oriented stock with strong technical momentum but short-term correction risk due to earnings deficits and volatility. The technical setup favors a recovery attempt in the near term, supported by market analyst bullishness and a strategic position in AI infrastructure. The intrinsic valuation signals the market’s expectation of substantial future growth rather than current profitability.

Categorizing the stock as a Buy candidate reflects confidence in its upside potential from both technical rebound patterns and positive fundamental tailwinds within the AI sector. The clean balance sheet and solid product portfolio provide a foundation for growth, while short-term investors should remain aware of volatility and upcoming earnings risk.