Sign InNVIDIA Positioned for Gains Amid Strong AI Leadership and Positive Technical Momentum
Summary
On June 4, 2025, NVIDIA's stock closed at $141.92, demonstrating bullish momentum with strong technical indicators and significant growth expectations amid a thriving AI market, despite potential near-term risks.
Technical Analysis
NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $141.92 on June 4, 2025, posting a modest intraday gain of 0.50%. The stock traded within a range of $139.55 to $142.39 and currently sits above both the 50-day ($117.05) and 200-day ($126.99) moving averages, indicating sustained medium- and long-term bullish momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) at 62 signals the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, maintaining a healthy bullish bias. The MACD remains strongly positive at 10.81, reinforcing upward momentum. Price support holds at $139.19 with a recommended stop-loss near $137.29, providing clear risk mitigation levels. Average true range (ATR) of 3.32 suggests moderate daily price volatility. Notably, no official resistance level has been identified below the yearly high of $153.13, indicating potential upward runway. Given volume (164 million) trails average daily volume (276 million), caution is warranted for potential liquidity-based swings.
For the next trading day (June 5, 2025), the technical setup favors continued stability or a slight advance given positive momentum indicators and price above key moving averages. Over the upcoming week, barring adverse macro or geopolitical developments, NVDA is positioned for modest gains toward the intermediate resistance zone near year high levels.
Fundamental Analysis
NVIDIA’s market capitalization stands at approximately $3.46 trillion, confirming its status as a mega-cap tech leader and the world’s most valuable company currently. The trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) is $3.09, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45.93, reflecting significant growth expectations embedded in stock price relative to current earnings. The dividend yield is negligible at 0.03% (TTM basis), indicating a growth-focused equity with minimal income distribution.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation estimates intrinsic value at roughly $144.57, slightly above the last close, suggesting the market price aligns closely with theoretical fair value. Wall Street consensus price targets range broadly, with a median near $175, and high at $190, implying upside potential against current levels.
Recent news highlights NVIDIA’s strategic leverage amid U.S.-China trade tensions, bolstered by its dominance in artificial intelligence semiconductors. Prominent market commentators emphasize Nvidia’s geopolitical importance and AI leadership as key growth drivers. However, some retail investors are cautioning on export control risks and maturing business dynamics, reflecting nuanced near-term risks.
Earnings are due August 27, 2025; thus, attention should remain on upcoming financial reports for a catalyst. The next dividend is expected by July 3, 2025, continuing the minimal yield policy.
Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential
The DCF-derived intrinsic value slightly exceeds the current share price, indicating NVIDIA is fairly valued to modestly undervalued under prevailing assumptions. Growth prospects remain compelling due to its critical role in the global AI boom, expanding data center demand, and strong competitive positioning in GPU and AI-related chips.
Long-term, NVIDIA’s fundamental strength is anchored by strong secular trends in AI, autonomous vehicles, gaming, and cloud computing. The company’s robust R&D, high-margin business model, and dominant technology moat create favorable structural advantages for sustained earnings growth. Nevertheless, valuation remains elevated with a near-46x P/E, implying significant expectations for continued rapid capital appreciation and execution.
Risk factors include geopolitical tensions affecting supply chain and market access, competition accelerating in AI chips, and potential slowing in gaming segment growth as the broader semiconductor cycle matures.
Performance Outlook
Short-term, NVDA’s technical momentum supports stability and incremental gains heading into next week. The absence of nearby resistance below the year high provides room for positive price movement, conditional on a stable macro environment. Market attention will focus on trade developments and corporate earnings.
Over a one-week horizon, directional bias favors appreciation toward analyst median targets (~$175), though volume below average and trading near the 14-day RSI upper threshold caution for intermittent consolidation or profit-taking.
Longer term, the stock’s fundamentals and market position support sustainable earnings growth and appreciation, particularly if AI sector expansion accelerates as anticipated.
Overall Evaluation
NVIDIA falls into a Buy candidate category. The technical indicators show positive momentum with price action firmly above key moving averages and a favorable risk/reward profile supported by clearly defined stop-loss levels. The fundamental backdrop is robust, with strong growth drivers in AI technology, a fair valuation discount versus consensus price targets, and demonstrated market leadership.
While valuation remains elevated, the company’s dominant market position and secular growth trends justify patience for continued capital appreciation. Near-term risks from export controls and
