NVIDIA Shows Short-Term Momentum but Faces Technical Resistance Ahead of Earnings Release

Technical Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $114.50 on May 2, 2025, up 2.59% from the prior session, reflecting positive short-term momentum. The stock traded within a range of $113.37 to $115.40, approaching near-term resistance at $115.99. The RSI at 55 indicates neutral momentum with slight bullish tilt, while the MACD remains negative at -2.11, signaling underlying weakness in momentum despite recent gains. The price is above its 50-day moving average ($112.44), suggesting short-term support, yet remains below the 200-day average ($125.10), implying the longer-term trend is still under pressure. Volume was below average, reducing conviction behind the price rise. Key support stands at $114.33, just below the current price, while a stop-loss near $110.61 limits downside risk.

For May 5, 2025, technical setup suggests potential modest gains as the stock tests resistance near $116. However, failure to break decisively above this level may lead to sideways or slight pullback action. Over the coming week, expect volatility around $114–$116, as the stock consolidates ahead of upcoming earnings on May 28.

Fundamental Analysis

NVIDIA’s trailing twelve-month EPS is $2.94, yielding a forward-looking P/E of 38.95, which is elevated but reflective of strong growth expectations. The market cap stands at $2.79 trillion, positioning NVDA among mega-cap technology leaders. The discounted cash flow model indicates an intrinsic value of roughly $161.81, significantly above current market price, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its intrinsic growth potential.

Consensus analyst targets reinforce this view, with a median price target of $175 and a high target near $195, signaling substantial upside potential. Wall Street sentiment heavily favors the stock, with 57 out of 75 analysts rating it a “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” contrasted with only 3 “Sell” calls, including the recent uncommon first sell rating reflecting caution over valuation rather than fundamentals.

Recent developments highlight NVIDIA’s continued dominance in the AI semiconductor space, with positive news flow around partnerships with Meta and Microsoft bolstering confidence in product relevance and future revenue streams. The company remains well-positioned in sectors likely to drive sustained demand for its GPUs and AI chips.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

The $161.81 discounted cash flow valuation versus the current price of $114.50 suggests notable intrinsic value upside, driven by robust free cash flow growth and dominant market positioning. Over the long term, NVIDIA is a key beneficiary of secular trends in AI, cloud computing, autonomous systems, and gaming. While near-term valuation metrics imply elevated multiples, the firm’s innovation pipeline and entrenched ecosystem support a favorable growth trajectory.

Nonetheless, the stock’s pullback from the year high of $153.13 signals market hesitancy, likely linked to broader macroeconomic uncertainties and interest rate considerations. The long-term investment case is compelling but contingent on successful execution of growth initiatives and market conditions stabilizing.

Overall Evaluation

NVIDIA presents a strong fundamental growth story supported by a trading price below intrinsic value, structural market advantages, and wide analyst buy-side consensus. Technically, the stock faces resistance in the near term, with mixed momentum signals suggesting consolidation after recent gains. Volume remains subdued relative to average, warranting caution for immediate aggressive moves.

Classifying NVIDIA as a Hold candidate balances the attractive long-term growth and intrinsic value against current technical resistance and valuation concerns. It remains a core growth asset poised to appreciate over time, but near-term volatility and profit-taking risk counsel patience for new positions while existing holders monitor price action closely ahead of earnings and broader market catalysts.