NVIDIA Stock Soars Amid Tariff Truce, Eyes Resistance at $124.92 with Bullish Long-Term Outlook

Technical Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA) closed May 12 at $123.00, up 5.44%, propelled by positive macro news surrounding the U.S.-China tariff truce. The stock traded within a daily range of $120.28 to $123.00, nearing its immediate resistance of $124.92. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 87 signals overbought conditions, suggesting short-term profit-taking or consolidation is possible. The volume of 222 million was below the 283 million average, indicating moderate participation in the rally. The 50-day moving average stands at $111.50, well below the current price, confirming strong upward momentum. However, the 200-day moving average at $125.04 slightly exceeds the last close, indicating the stock is approaching a longer-term resistance level. The MACD reading of 1.80 corroborates bullish sentiment but also signals caution due to potential divergence at elevated price levels. Support is solidly positioned at $114.33, with a stop-loss reference at $118.99.

For the next trading day (May 13), the stock is expected to test resistance near $124.92 with potential volatility given the high RSI and large recent gains. A mild pullback or sideways movement cannot be ruled out as short-term traders may lock in profits. Over the upcoming week, assuming no adverse macro developments, NVDA is positioned to challenge its 200-day moving average and possibly reapproach the 52-week high of $153.13, supported by ongoing tariff relief optimism and fundamental strength.

Fundamental Analysis

NVIDIA’s market capitalization stands at approximately $2.99 trillion, underscoring its dominance in the semiconductor sector. The trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) is $2.94, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.84 — elevated but justifiable for a high-growth technology name with strong secular tailwinds in AI and data center demand. The discounted cash flow (DCF) intrinsic value is estimated at $146.01, indicating the stock is currently trading below its fundamental valuation by roughly 16%.

Analyst consensus further supports this assessment, with 57 out of 75 analysts rating the stock as a ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’ and a price target consensus near $173.19, implying substantial upside potential over the medium term. The upcoming earnings announcement on May 28 may inject further volatility but is expected to reaffirm the company’s growth trajectory despite some near-term challenges such as the recent $800 million export ban on H20 GPUs.

The recent U.S.-China tariff reduction has diminished geopolitical risks that had pressured valuation multiples, making NVDA better positioned to sustain revenue and margin expansion. Meanwhile, options market activity remains robust, reflecting bullish investor positioning.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The intrinsic value of $146.01, derived from DCF modeling, alongside a current price of $123.00, suggests that the stock trades at a discount relative to its future cash flow expectations. This valuation gap provides a margin of safety and indicates potential for appreciation as NVIDIA continues capitalizing on growth in AI, gaming, and data centers. The stock’s technology leadership and expanding total addressable market justify a long-term investment horizon, despite short-term volume fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties.

The forward-looking consensus reflects strong confidence in NVIDIA’s innovation pipeline and dominance in multiple secular growth areas. While the P/E multiple is high, the company’s earnings growth and free cash generation support a premium multiple relative to the broader market.

Overall Evaluation

NVIDIA’s technical breakout amid a generally positive macro backdrop and tariff de-escalation scenario solidifies its bullish outlook. The stock is trading below but close to its 200-day moving average, with strong support levels and consistent fundamental tailwinds. The short-term overbought condition signals a potential minor correction or consolidation before further upside.

Considering the intrinsic value gap and high analyst buy-side consensus, NVIDIA appears as a solid ‘Hold’ candidate for near-term traders monitoring resistance levels and a ‘Buy’ candidate for long-term investors focused on secular growth potential. The stock’s risk-return profile over the week favors accumulation on dips, particularly ahead of earnings, but with prudent attention to technical resistance and macro developments.