NVIDIA's Stock Remains Bearish Amid Geopolitical Risks but Long-Term Growth Outlook Remains Strong

Technical Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $101.43 on April 17, 2025, down 2.93% on lower volume than average, signaling a lack of conviction in today’s sell-off. Technical momentum indicators remain bearish: the 14-day RSI stands at 44, indicating the stock is in neutral to slightly oversold territory but not deeply so. The MACD over three months is negative at -4.87, underlining downward pressure. The current price is well below both the 50-day ($118.05) and the 200-day ($126.17) moving averages, confirming a medium- to long-term downtrend. Notably, recent trading tested support near $97.64, which should act as a near-term floor barring a sharp negative catalyst. Resistance lies at $114.33, a level not challenged since the corrective decline began. The average true range (ATR) of $7.53 suggests elevated volatility, consistent with recent market instability in tech sectors.

For the upcoming trading day (April 21), the technical setup points to incomplete downside correction with potential for a bounce near support. However, inability to regain the 50-day moving average may result in continued choppy, range-bound trading with resistance near $114 unlikely to be tested this week. For the next week, unless broader market sentiment improves or strong positive news emerges, NVDA could consolidate in the $97–$110 range with volatility driven by macro factors and tariff-related concerns.

Fundamental Analysis

NVIDIA’s market capitalization stands at approximately $2.48 trillion, reflecting its dominant position in semiconductors and AI chip markets. The trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $2.94 yields a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.52, which, while elevated relative to the overall market, remains justified given NVIDIA’s growth prospects in AI and data center segments. The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation is $161.27, significantly higher than the current price of $101.43, suggesting the stock is undervalued on a fundamental basis.

Analyst consensus from 75 contributors is strongly bullish, with 2 strong buys, 55 buys, and only 3 sells, and a consensus price target median of $175 and a high target at $250. The earnings announcement on May 28, 2025, represents a material catalyst that could reset valuations based on guidance and execution in key markets.

Recent geopolitical developments and export restrictions on NVIDIA chip sales to China have created near-term headwinds, contributing to the stock’s recent 9% decline over the past week amid broad tech sector weakness. However, demand for AI-related semiconductors remains robust globally, and NVIDIA’s market leadership is expected to support revenue growth and margin expansion over the medium to long term.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The DCF valuation based on current estimates places intrinsic value at $161.27, implying roughly 59% upside from current levels. Given NVIDIA’s strong position in AI, gaming GPUs, and data centers, the long-term growth trajectory remains intact despite short-term volatility. The premium valuation multiples reflect these growth expectations. Over multi-year horizons, NVDA is positioned to benefit from multiple secular trends, including AI adoption, autonomous vehicles, and cloud computing, supporting sustained revenue and earnings expansion.

Intrinsic value calculations highlight a significant discount relative to fair value, supporting the case for accumulation on weakness, provided geopolitical risks do not escalate materially. The strong analyst buy consensus aligns with long-term growth expectations.

Overall Evaluation

NVIDIA currently trades well below key moving averages amid near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures, resulting in technical weakness and short-term volatility. However, the fundamental profile remains robust: strong earnings growth, industry leadership, a substantial gap between intrinsic value ($161.27) and market price (~$101.43), and a broad analyst consensus supporting upside.

In the near term, NVDA may trade sideways or slightly lower as the market digests uncertainties related to US export restrictions and the upcoming earnings report. Over the next week, the expected trading range is between $97 and $110, with the possibility of some rebound attempts.

Given the attractive intrinsic valuation and strong growth fundamentals offsetting current macro and geopolitical risks, NVDA qualifies as a Hold candidate for near-term trading due to elevated volatility and weak technicals, while exhibiting Buy characteristics from a long-term investment perspective based on intrinsic value and sector dominance. Continued monitoring of risk catalysts (tariffs, earnings outcome) is critical before transitioning to a more aggressive stance.