Red day on Friday for SPY ETF after losing 1.55%, 2 months ago

The SPY ETF price fell by -1.55% on the last day (Friday, 30th Sep 2022) from $362.79 to $357.18. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.48% from a day low at $357.04 to a day high of $365.91. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.36% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 41 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 154 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $55.00 billion.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.74% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $347.39 and $412.04 at the end of this 3-month period.


There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $365.77 and $396.90. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, August 16, 2022, and so far it has fallen -16.88%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $8.87 between high and low, or 2.48%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.37%.

SPY is oversold on RSI14 (15). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.