Red day on Wednesday for SPY ETF after losing 0.371%

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.371% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $501.98 to $500.12. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.66% from a day low at $499.87 to a day high of $508.18. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.09% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 79 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $39.28 billion.

The ETF is at the lower part of a horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $496.46 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $505.94 and $537.12 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.00%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $504.99 and $512.24. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $495.16 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $8.32 between high and low, or 1.66%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.21%.

SPY holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.