Rigetti Computing: Balanced Outlook Amid Technical Strength and Fundamental Challenges

Technical Analysis

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) closed at $11.32 on June 9, 2025, showing a modest gain of 0.35%. The intraday range spanned $11.10 to $11.81, with price currently hugging short-term support at $11.22, just above the 50-day moving average of $10.19 and well above the 200-day moving average of $7.10, indicating a positive medium to long-term trend. The RSI at 46 signals a neutral momentum condition, neither oversold nor overbought, while the MACD remains positive at 1.32, suggesting underlying bullish momentum. Volume on the last session, 35.51 million, was below the 49.41 million average, implying moderate trading interest. Key resistance lies at $11.64, a level to watch for potential breakout.

For the next trading day (June 10, 2025), the stock is likely to trade within a narrow range bounded by support at $11.22 and resistance at $11.64. The relatively high ATR of 9.97 indicates substantial volatility historically, but recent congestion near $11.30 points to potential consolidation before a directional move. Over the upcoming week, with no immediate catalysts until the August earnings release, RGTI may experience range-bound trading or moderate appreciation if the broader market or tech sector momentum remains constructive.

Fundamental Analysis

RGTI’s trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) stands at -$0.80, with a negative price-earnings ratio (PE) of -14.06, reflecting persistent losses typical of an early-stage quantum computing company. The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation is negative at -$2.35, suggesting market expectations of significant capital expenditures and no near-term free cash flow generation. Market capitalization totals approximately $3.29 billion, positioning Rigetti as a mid-cap player within the nascent quantum sector.

Analyst consensus shows 3 buys and 1 hold with no sells, which aligns with the thematic bullishness on quantum computing's long-term growth potential. Price targets, however, are modest compared to current levels, with median and consensus targets near $3, indicating analysts see the current price as elevated relative to fundamentals.

Recent strategic developments, such as the $35 million contract with Quanta to scale quantum computing applications, signal incremental progress toward commercial viability. Nonetheless, RGTI remains exposed to significant execution and technology risks inherent in the quantum computing industry.

Intrinsic Value and Long-term Investment Potential

The negative DCF and earnings losses indicate that intrinsic value is currently below market price under traditional cash flow models. However, the investment thesis hinges on disruptive technology adoption and future market penetration. Quantum computing remains at an early stage, implying any intrinsic value based on conventional financial metrics is likely to undervalue the firm’s potential.

Long-term investment potential depends on RGTI’s ability to capitalize on its early-mover advantage, secure scalable partnerships, and transition from R&D to revenue-driving operations. The stock offers asymmetric upside rooted in technological and market breakthroughs but remains speculative with high volatility and no profitability visibility for the foreseeable future.

Overall Evaluation

RGTI exhibits technical strength with a price well above long-term moving averages and positive momentum indicators. However, fundamentals reveal negative earnings, a lack of positive cash flow, and a valuation that appears optimistic relative to current intrinsic value estimates. The analyst consensus is cautiously bullish but highlights the discrepancy between price and target valuations.

As a near-term trading candidate, RGTI may see consolidation with opportunity for breakout if momentum continues. From a longer-term perspective, it remains a high-risk growth play contingent on breakthroughs in quantum computing commercialization.

Categorized as a Hold based on the current balance of technical momentum, fundamental challenges, and the speculative nature of the sector. This rating reflects a cautious stance awaiting clearer signs of profitability and evidence of durable revenue growth.