Rigetti Computing Shows Cautious Bullish Trend Amid Technical Support and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Technical Analysis

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) closed at $12.04 on June 3, 2025, down 1.79% from the previous day. The intraday range showed some volatility with a low of $11.82 and a high of $12.83. The stock remains above both the 50-day ($9.97) and 200-day ($6.84) moving averages, indicating an ongoing bullish trend despite recent pullback. The 14-day RSI at 62 signals moderate bullish momentum without being overbought. The MACD over three months stands at 1.39, supporting positive momentum. Key technical support is at $11.92, with immediate resistance near $13.86. The ATR of approximately 10.32 appears anomalously high and may be distorted, but the price action reveals a moderate daily range. Given the stop-loss set near $11.47, the risk threshold is closely aligned with current support levels.

For June 4, 2025, price action suggests a likely consolidation near the current price levels with a potential test of resistance at $13.86 if buying interest resumes. Volume on June 3 was below average (~41.85 million vs. 51.52 million), which may limit strong directional moves in the near term. Over the upcoming week, the trend is expected to remain cautiously bullish barring negative catalysts, as the stock sustains its position above key moving averages and maintains RSI within a stable range.

Fundamental Analysis

Rigetti Computing’s market capitalization stands at $3.52 billion, reflecting a mid-cap growth profile within the nascent quantum computing sector. The trailing twelve-month EPS is negative at -$0.80, with a negative P/E ratio of -15.05, reflecting ongoing losses consistent with early-stage tech firms investing heavily in R&D and expansion.

The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation is notably negative (-$2.38), suggesting that intrinsic value based on current cash flows and projections does not yet support the prevailing stock price. However, this metric may not capture the strategic value of quantum computing advancements or future cash flow potential given the industry’s early development phase.

Analyst sentiment leans positive with a consensus "Buy," supported by three buy and one hold ratings, but with target prices centered around $3.00, significantly lower than the current trading level. This divergence reflects differing outlooks on near-term valuation versus long-term growth prospects.

Recent sector commentary highlights Rigetti’s leadership in quantum technology development, with shares surging over 1,249% in the past year. The company's market position and technological breakthroughs suggest strong long-term growth potential as quantum computing matures and commercial applications increase.

The next earnings announcement is scheduled for August 6, 2025, which may provide additional clarity on financial trajectory and progress toward profitability.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

Current DCF outputs and analyst price targets imply that Rigetti’s stock price is trading at a premium to fundamental valuation based strictly on near-term earnings and cash flows. However, intrinsic value in rapidly evolving tech sectors like quantum computing can require a forward-looking lens that factors in disruptive innovation, intellectual property, and market positioning. Rigetti’s robust share price performance over the past year, combined with technological momentum, suggests material upside if commercialization gains traction.

Long-term investment potential hinges on successful product development, scalability of quantum systems, and competitive advantage sustainability. The high-risk, high-reward nature of quantum technologies aligns with a growth-oriented profile but entails earnings volatility and cash burn risks.

Overall Evaluation

Rigetti Computing exhibits strong technical indicators supporting a near-term hold with upside potential toward resistance at $13.86. From a fundamental perspective, the lack of current profitability and negative intrinsic valuation metrics temper enthusiasm, though industry leadership and innovation potential provide a growth narrative for longer-term investors.

Given these factors, the stock aligns most closely with a Hold classification. The position above major moving averages and moderate RSI argue against selling under current conditions, while the disparity between analyst targets and market price, alongside negative earnings, stops short of a definitive buy case. Investors monitoring growth execution and earnings developments in upcoming quarters should revisit this stance accordingly.