SPY ETF downgraded from Strong Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.478% on the last day (Friday, 20th Sep 2024) from $570.98 to $568.25. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.731% from a day low at $565.17 to a day high of $569.30. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.15% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 70 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $39.59 billion.

The ETFis at the upper part of a horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $573.01 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $533.42 and $584.25 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

There are mixed signals in the ETF today. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, September 19, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.478%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $563.95 and $550.60. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $543.01 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.13 between high and low, or 0.731%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.92%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.