SPY ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate

The SPY ETF price fell by -1.16% on the last day (Tuesday, 15th Aug 2023) from $448.11 to $442.89. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.98% from a day low at $442.30 to a day high of $446.64. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -2.98% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 19 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 67 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $29.70 billion.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 9.47% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $484.85 and $508.97 at the end of this 3-month period.

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $446.82 and $447.80. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, July 31, 2023, and so far it has fallen -3.25%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $442.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.34 between high and low, or 0.98%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.02%.

SPY holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.