SPY ETF price down 2.79% on Friday

The SPY ETF price fell by -2.79% on the last day (Friday, 7th Oct 2022) from $373.20 to $362.79. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 3.42% from a day low at $360.94 to a day high of $373.29. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.4% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 28 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 192 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $69.61 billion.

The ETF lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $355.03 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -6.23% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $332.91 and $388.03 at the end of this 3-month period.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, September 30, 2022, and so far it has risen 1.57%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $368.23 and $388.83. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $357.18 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $12.35 between high and low, or 3.42%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.61%.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.