Stronger technical forecast for Microsoft stock price after Thursday trading

The Microsoft stock price fell by -0.612% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Sep 2025) from $510.15 to $507.03. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.98% from a day low at $505.04 to a day high of $510.01. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.2% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 2 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 15 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $7.84 billion.

On Jul 31, 2025, it was reported that Morgan Stanley gave MSFT a "Overweight" grade with a "hold" action.

The stock is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Microsoft stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $502.15 and $545.55 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stock seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stock turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Microsoft stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $511.04 and $510.10. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, September 19, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.10%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $502.04 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $4.97 between high and low, or 0.98%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.26%.

Microsoft holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold candidate.