Stronger technical forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF price after Friday trading

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price fell by -1.64% on the last day (Friday, 1st Aug 2025) from $632.08 to $621.72. It has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.36% from a day low at $619.29 to a day high of $627.69. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.93% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 37 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 139 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $86.73 billion.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 12.02% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $696.45 and $719.91 at the end of this 3-month period.

A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, July 25, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.41%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $633.13. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $619.42. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal.

SPDR S&P 500 finds support from accumulated volume at $617.95 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $8.40 between high and low, or 1.36%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.97%.

Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Buy candidate.