Stronger technical forecast for XAU/USD currency pair price after Friday trading

The XAU/USD currency pair price fell by -0.384% on the last day (Friday, 9th May 2025) from $3,323.88 to $3,311.12. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 1.50% from a day low at $3,274.84 to a day high of $3,324.06. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.57% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the currency pair, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the currency pair. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -239 thousand shares and in total, 0 shares were bought and sold for approximately $0 .

The currency pair lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the currency pair is expected to rise 17.74% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $3,714.36 and $4,113.87 at the end of this 3-month period.

The XAU/USD currency pair holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the currency pair. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $3,306.09 and $3,202.88. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 06, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.02%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this currency pair may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.

On the downside, the currency pair finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $3,110.46 and $3,090.31.There is a natural risk involved when a currency pair is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the currency pair then may fall to the next support level. In this case, XAU/USD finds support just below today's level at $3,110.46. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $3,090.31 and $3,037.41.

In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the currency pair During the last day, the currency pair moved $49.22 between high and low, or 1.50%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 2.46%

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for XAU/USD currency pair to perform well in the short-term.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.