Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Shows Bullish Momentum: Technical & Fundamental Analysis Highlights Hold Status

StockInvest.us, 2 weeks ago

Taiwan Semiconductor Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) closed at $175.70 on July 02, 2024, experiencing a modest increase of 1.96%, indicative of bullish sentiment. The stock traded between $171.03 and $176.71, demonstrating some intra-day volatility. With a substantial market cap of $777.92 billion, TSM remains one of the giants in the semiconductor industry.

The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests it is nearing overbought territory but has not yet reached it, implying the potential for further gains in the near term. The 50-day moving average of $155.93 and the 200-day moving average of $122.21 show a strong upward trend, confirming bullish momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 8.03 indicates solid upward momentum, while the Average True Range (ATR) of 3.03 signifies moderate volatility. The stock faces immediate support at $175.38 and resistance at $177.24, which will be crucial levels to monitor. A tight stop-loss at $169.93 could serve as a guardrail for risk management.

Fundamental Analysis

TSM's Earnings Per Share (EPS) stands at $5.15, yielding a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 34.12. This indicates that investors have high expectations for future growth, given the premium valuation. The impending earnings announcement on July 18, 2024, and an upcoming dividend yield of 0.25% on July 11, 2024, are notable dates for stakeholders.

The stock's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) value of $63.79 reveals a significant discrepancy compared to the current market price, pointing towards an overvaluation. However, industry-specific trends and TSM’s pivotal role in AI hardware manufacturing might justify this premium.

Institutional consensus points towards a bullish outlook: with nine buy ratings and one hold, the stock holds a consensus 'Buy' status. Analyst price targets range broadly from $125 to $200, with a median target at $184, suggesting some room for growth but also reflecting a measure of cautious optimism.

Taiwan Semiconductor News Analysis

Recent news articles underscore TSM’s positioning as a major beneficiary of the AI boom, alongside Nvidia. Media sentiment appears overwhelmingly positive, aligning with the stock’s recent price action and higher trading volume.


For the next trading day (July 03, 2024), TSM may see continued bullish activity, potentially testing the $177.24 resistance given positive sentiment and robust technical indicators. Over the upcoming week, the stock might oscillate between $175 and $180, with the potential to break new highs if earnings projections or market conditions remain favorable.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

Despite the DCF analysis suggesting overvaluation, TSM’s role in the AI supply chain, strong financials, and dominant market position render it a lucrative long-term investment. The intrinsic value, reflected in its technological advancements and market applications, supports a positive outlook.

Overall Evaluation

Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) is categorized as a 'Hold' candidate. Although the stock shows strong growth potential fueled by favorable AI trends and positive news sentiment, the high market valuation warrants a cautious stance as it approaches possible overbought conditions.

Check full Taiwan Semiconductor forecast and analysis here.