Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 03, 2025 Gain 6.02%

The Taiwan Semiconductor stock price fell by -1.87% on the last day (Friday, 20th Jun 2025) from $213.50 to $209.51. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.53% from a day low at $208.15 to a day high of $215.50. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.03% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 7 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 14 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.93 billion.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 38.54% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $263.81 and $302.88 at the end of this 3-month period.

TSM Signals & Forecast

The Taiwan Semiconductor stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $213.32. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $195.95. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 16, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.86%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Taiwan Semiconductor stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $172.72 and $158.75. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Taiwan Semiconductor finds support just below today's level at $172.72. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $158.75 and $157.38.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $7.35 between high and low, or 3.53%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.97%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $202.11 (-3.53%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (TSM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 23rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 23rd we expect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd to open at $211.05, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $204.52 and $214.50, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$4.99 (+/-2.38%) up or down from last closing price. If Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.77% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $211.10 (0.76%) than the support at $172.72 (17.56%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd stock A Buy?

Taiwan Semiconductor holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.255 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 23, 2025 - $211.05 ( 0.736%).

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