TMC Equity Soars 28.8% Amid Strong Momentum and Strategic Developments, Targets $6.25

Technical Analysis

TMC equity surged 28.80% to close at $5.59 on June 16, 2025, near its 52-week high of $5.66, reflecting strong bullish momentum. The stock’s volume of 22.39 million notably exceeded its average daily volume of 9.52 million, indicating heightened investor interest and confirming the price move’s conviction. The RSI at 61 suggests slightly bullish conditions without being overbought, while the MACD remains positive at 0.45, supporting continued upward momentum. Both the 50-day moving average ($3.44) and the 200-day moving average ($1.81) lie well below the current price, underscoring an established uptrend. Immediate support is at $4.69, with no defined resistance overhead, enhancing breakout potential. The ATR is unusually high (~8.81), which may reflect volatility skew from recent price swings rather than normal trading ranges. A prudent intraday stop-loss sits near $5.38 below which retracement could be expected.

For the next trading day (June 17), the technical setup suggests further upside or at least a consolidation near current price levels with support intact. Over the coming week, continued strength could carry TMC close to its analyst target price of $6.25, driven by sustained volume and positive momentum.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, TMC operates in the high-growth, strategic niche of deep-sea critical metals, crucial for energy, defense, and infrastructure sectors. However, the company remains unprofitable with a trailing twelve-month (TTM) EPS of -$0.23 and a negative P/E of -24.30, indicating ongoing investment and development costs outweighing revenues. The discounted cash flow (DCF) model yields a negative intrinsic value estimate (-$0.03), suggesting current expected future cash flows do not justify the market price. Nonetheless, the recent sizable strategic $85.2 million investment from Korea Zinc adds substantial capital and validation of TMC’s technology and project viability.

The recent appointments of Michael Hess and Alex Spiro to the board introduce critical expertise in energy infrastructure, capital markets, and regulatory matters, significantly strengthening governance and execution capability amid efforts to commercialize polymetallic nodule mining in international waters. The projected earnings announcement on August 13, 2025, will be a key milestone to monitor incremental progress.

Long-term investment potential hinges on successful commercialization and scalability of seabed mining operations, which remain speculative but could unlock valuable mineral resources critical to decarbonization trends and supply chain diversification. The current market cap of approximately $2.07 billion reflects significant optimism priced in relative to fundamental cash flow realities.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Outlook

The negative intrinsic value from DCF alongside negative earnings reveals TMC is currently priced for future growth rather than present fundamentals. If technological and regulatory milestones are met, and strategic partnerships like Korea Zinc’s investment foster operational breakthroughs, TMC could capture substantial value in the evolving critical metals market. The stock’s recent rally and board enhancements indicate progress toward that future potential. However, risks remain elevated given the early-stage commercial model, financing needs, and geopolitical factors in seabed resource extraction.

Overall Evaluation

Currently, TMC is categorized as a Hold. The stock shows strong technical momentum and strategic developments but lacks positive earnings and intrinsic value to warrant outright bullish conviction. The consensus analyst target price sits at $6.25, implying moderate upside from today’s levels, balanced against non-trivial execution and market risks. Investors with a higher risk tolerance focused on emerging resource ventures may find the stock attractive, while those requiring stable fundamentals may await clearer profitability signals.