TQQQ Shows Bullish Momentum with Potential Uptrend Despite Long-Term Risks and Inherent Volatility

Technical Analysis

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) closed at $81.42 on June 27, 2025, up 0.98% for the day, showing short-term bullish momentum. The 14-day RSI stands at 67, approaching but not yet in overbought territory, suggesting further upward room for price appreciation in the immediate term. The MACD remains positive at 2.32, reinforcing bullish momentum over the past three months. Price remains well above the 50-day moving average ($66.08) and is slightly above the 200-day moving average ($72.34), indicating established medium- and long-term uptrends. The average true range (ATR) of 3.66 points points to moderate volatility. Intraday price fluctuations between $79.85 and $82.24 confirm a fairly tight range near recent highs. The immediate support level is at $72.83, while no clear resistance is defined, reflecting a possible breakout environment.

For the next trading day (June 30, 2025), the combination of positive momentum indicators and broader market tailwinds fueled by the US-China trade framework and supportive bullish futures suggests a modest continuation of gains, potentially pushing toward or slightly above the $82 mark. Over the upcoming week, assuming no significant adverse macro developments or earnings shocks, prices are likely to trade in an upward channel between recent consolidation around $78.44 (stop-loss level) and challenge previous year highs near $93.79 if buying interest escalates.

Fundamental Analysis

TQQQ is a leveraged ETF designed to deliver three times the daily returns of the NASDAQ-100 index, inherently amplifying the risk-return profile. Its trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share stands at $2.30, paired with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.35, reflecting investor anticipation of continued robust growth in the Nasdaq tech sector. Market capitalization of approximately $26.53 billion underscores a significant asset base for liquidity but remains substantially smaller than broad market ETFs, consistent with its niche leveraged strategy.

The product’s fundamental value primarily stems from the underlying Nasdaq-100 index performance. Current macro positives such as a confirmed US-China trade agreement improve growth visibility for tech-driven companies within the index, potentially benefiting TQQQ’s leveraged exposure. However, elevated inflation indicated by the forthcoming PCE data may pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary conditions, a known risk to growth equities and leveraged instruments reliant on market momentum.

Intrinsic value for a leveraged ETF is complex due to daily compounding effects; thus, long-term holders may experience value degradation versus the Nasdaq-100 itself, especially in volatile markets. Investors with long-term horizons might find direct exposure to the Nasdaq-100 or non-leveraged ETFs more suitable for capital preservation and steady appreciation.

Long-Term Investment Potential

TQQQ’s structure favors short-term tactical positioning rather than a buy-and-hold investment given daily leverage decay and volatility drag. While the underlying tech sector remains a growth engine amid innovation and global digitization, TQQQ’s amplified exposure introduces heightened risk and may erode returns over extended periods if markets experience significant pullbacks or sideways movements. The trailing PE ratio indicates bullish forward expectations but may also suggest vulnerability to valuation corrections in a rising interest rate environment.

Long-term investors seeking capital appreciation without daily volatility risk are better positioned with index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500, as TQQQ’s leverage magnifies both gains and losses, increasing portfolio risk beyond traditional benchmarks.

Overall Evaluation

TQQQ currently exhibits technical strength supported by positive momentum indicators and favorable macro developments, indicating potential short-term gains into the next trading day and week. However, fundamental considerations, including the risks associated with leveraged ETFs, inflationary pressures, and inherent compounding challenges, temper enthusiasm for long-term holding.

The stock should be classified primarily as a tactical Hold with a bias toward traders utilizing it for short-term leveraged exposure to the tech sector. Its risk profile and structural nuances limit suitability for conservative or long-duration investment strategies. The absence of immediate resistance suggests room for near-term appreciation, but caution should prevail given the susceptibility to volatility and market shifts.