Trump Media & Technology Group Faces Bearish Trend Amid Increased Volatility and Institutional Interest

Technical Analysis

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) closed at $21.33 on May 30, 2025, up 2.40% from the previous session. The stock remains below key technical levels, trading under its 50-day moving average of $22.49 and significantly beneath the 200-day moving average of $26.54, signaling a prevailing bearish trend. The 14-day RSI at 34 indicates the stock is nearing oversold territory but has yet to show a strong rebound signal. MACD remains positive at 0.25, suggesting mild bullish momentum over the past three months, though the high ATR of 7.61 points to substantial volatility. Support stands at $20.83, with resistance near $21.49—both levels are critical near-term barriers.

Volume activity shows a surge to approximately 23.75 million shares, nearly four times the average daily volume of 6.04 million, indicating heightened investor interest, likely connected to recent capital raises and strategic developments.

For the next trading day (June 2, 2025), the stock may test immediate support at $20.83 after the recent surge and consolidate between $20.80 and $21.50. Given the technical setup and elevated volume, a volatile session is plausible. Over the next week, price action is expected to remain range-bound pending catalyst development, with a probable oscillation below the 50-day MA around $22.50. A breakout above this level would be necessary to resume upward momentum.

Fundamental Analysis

At a market capitalization of $4.71 billion and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.22, DJT is valued in line with many mid-cap technology and media firms, though the stock trades well below its 52-week high of $54.68, suggesting diminished market optimism compared to earlier in the year. The trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $1.11 reflect modest profitability.

Recent strategic moves include a $2.44 billion private placement with institutional investors, substantially strengthening the company’s balance sheet. The capital raise is earmarked for establishing a bitcoin treasury reserve, positioning the company as an active participant in digital asset holdings. This can enhance future earnings potential if bitcoin’s value appreciates but introduces high volatility risk.

The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation at $0.78 per share significantly understates the current price, indicating market expectations of substantial growth and intangible asset value not captured in cash flow projections, possibly related to intellectual property, brand, or digital asset holdings. Given current earnings and cash flow data, the share appears overvalued from a strictly intrinsic value standpoint.

Institutional interest, highlighted by CalSTRS’ disclosed stake, adds credibility but also subjects the stock to potential pension fund rebalancing volatility.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The disparity between the current market price ($21.33) and DCF valuation ($0.78) suggests that the company’s intrinsic value based on fundamental cash flows is low relative to current market expectations. This gap implies significant uncertainty or reliance on speculative growth assumptions, particularly involving its new bitcoin holdings and media technology expansion.

Long-term prospects depend on successful monetization of its assets, growth in user base or media platform revenue, and cryptocurrency market dynamics. If the company can capitalize on bitcoin appreciation while expanding revenue streams, intrinsic value could improve materially. However, the high volatility and sector risks—coupled with recent share price weakness—temper long-term bullish expectations.

Overall Evaluation

DJT exhibits a volatile price profile with recent institutional funding inflows and strategic repositioning in digital assets. Technically, the stock is under pressure, trading below critical averages with a low RSI. Fundamentally, valuations are stretched relative to a conservative DCF measure, reflecting speculative premium. The stock’s future hinges on execution of its bitcoin treasury strategy and expansion in its core media business.

Considering these factors, DJT qualifies as a Hold candidate. The stock has resumed some upward momentum after significant weakness but remains below key resistance and shows signs of technical and fundamental uncertainty. Investors seeking long-term exposure may monitor operational progress and bitcoin market developments before conviction build.