Walmart Stock Shows Mixed Signals Amid Volatility and Overvaluation Concerns

Technical Analysis

Walmart Inc. (WMT) closed at $90.61 on April 10, 2025, reflecting a 1.13% increase over the previous day. The stock traded in a range between $88.16 and $91.87, indicating moderate volatility amid a market affected by tariff concerns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI14) stands at 58, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The current price is below the 50-day moving average of $93.03, but above the 200-day moving average of $84.24, a pattern indicating potential recovery from recent declines. However, the MACD value of -2.07 reflects bearish sentiment over the recent months.

For the next trading day and week, the immediate resistance is at $91.72, with support levels around $89.60. Given the ATR of approximately 3.75 and volatility in volume—well below the average—price swings are probable. In light of these factors, short-term traders should expect fluctuations within this bracket.

Fundamental Analysis

Walmart's fundamentals show a PE ratio of 37.59, higher than typical industry averages, suggesting a stock priced for growth rather than value. With an EPS of 2.41 and a relatively low dividend yield of 0.95% based on trailing twelve months (TTM), Walmart's current valuation seems disconnected from intrinsic calculations. The DCF model appraises the stock at approximately $48.55, meaning the current market price exceeds intrinsic value, indicating overvaluation.

Analysts have set target prices ranging from $90 to $113, with a consensus around $99.29, reflecting expectations for modest appreciation. The recent Mizuho declaration as a 'must-own' stock amid trade tensions suggests institutional confidence, while the company's removal of its first-quarter guidance amid tariff pressures raises questions about near-term operational challenges.

Intrinsic Value and Long-term Potential

Walmart's intrinsic value, as assessed by DCF, suggests potential overvaluation. Despite this, Walmart's strategic moves in supply chain overhauls and reaffirmed full-year guidance as reflected in recent news bolster its long-term prospects. The company's robust international presence and adaptability amid macroeconomic strains provide resilience, further evidenced by analysts' bullish stance.

Overall Evaluation

Classifying Walmart as a 'Hold' appears prudent in this context. While the stock is technically overshooting its fundamental valuation, its market position, strategic initiatives, and institutional endorsements underscore its potential for long-term stability. Caution may be advisable for traders focused on short-term gains due to current volatility markers and ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting retail dynamics.