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Weak technical forecast for Alibaba

StockInvest.us, 1 year ago


The Alibaba stock fell by -2.69% on the last day (Thursday, 5th Nov 2020) from $295.71 to $287.75. During the day the stock fluctuated 4.17% from a day low at $279.60 to a day high of $291.25. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -6.05% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 22 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 50 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $14.40 billion.

Barclays is very positive to BABA and gave it an "Overweight" rating on October 20, 2020. The price target was set to $320.00 - $360.00.Over the last 30 days, this security got 2 buy, 0 sell and 0 hold ratings.

The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $287.19 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 19.07% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $341.95 and $384.35 at the end of this 3-month period.


There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $300.72 and $295.12. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, October 27, 2020, and so far it has fallen -9.27%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 months Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $286.00.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $11.65 (4.17%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.87%.


Alibaba stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Alibaba will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy Candidate to a Sell Candidate candidate.

Check full Alibaba forecast and analysis here.