Stronger technical forecast for Alibaba stock price after Monday trading.
(Updated on Nov 29, 2021)
Sell candidate since 2021-11-17 Loss -18.55% PDF
The Alibaba stock price fell by -1.30% on the last day (Monday, 29th Nov 2021) from $133.35 to $131.61. and has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the day the stock fluctuated 3.06% from a day low at $130.55 to a day high of $134.55. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -21.1% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 4 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 19 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.44 billion.
The stock has broken the very wide and falling short-term trend down. Firstly a stronger fallrate is indicated, but false breaks and "sell-off" may occur. However, a further fall is realistic and any reactions back to the breaking point ($133.49) are considered to be a "second chance" to get out. According to the fan-theory $93.22 will represent the new bottom line of the next trend, but it is far too early to say this for certain.
Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $136.53 and $161.47. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, October 22, 2021, and so far it has fallen -25.94%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $4.00 between high and low, or 3.06%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.22%.
Alibaba is oversold on RSI14 (22). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?
Alibaba holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Sell to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.885
Predicted Opening Price for Alibaba Group Holding Limited of Tuesday, November 30, 2021
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.
|Fair opening price November 30, 2021||Current price|
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On Nov 28, 2021 "The Goldman Sachs Group" gave "" rating for BABA. The price target was changed from $133.35 to 2.3%.
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