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$79.99 (1.18%)

Volume: 17.098M

Closed: Sep 30, 2022

Hollow Logo Score: -2.185

Alibaba Stock Forecast

$79.99 (1.18%)

Volume: 17.098M

Closed: Sep 30, 2022

Score Hollow Logo -2.185
* StockInvest.us uses dynamically calculated RSI max/min levels to determine when stock is oversold or overbought based on historical behavior.
RSI min/max Values: [ 25 - 75 ] The Alibaba stock currently holds an RSI14 at 21 and is oversold on RSI14. The stock being oversold is no guarantee for instant reaction up as some stocks may be oversold for a long time. It is important to review the previous RSI-history to get an indication of the RSI-sensitiveness.
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Alibaba stock price up 1.18% on Friday
(Updated on Sep 30, 2022)


Sell candidate since 2022-09-16 Loss -7.45% PDF

The Alibaba stock price gained 1.18% on the last trading day (Friday, 30th Sep 2022), rising from $79.06 to $79.99. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.98% from a day low at $78.65 to a day high of $81.78. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.45% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -791 thousand shares and in total, 17 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.37 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -25.19% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $57.14 and $69.33 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Alibaba stock holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $88.97. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $79.48. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, September 27, 2022, and so far it has risen 2.72%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $79.06 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $3.13 between high and low, or 3.98%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.22%.

Alibaba is oversold on RSI14 (21). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 3rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 3rd we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $80.14, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $76.27 and $83.71, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.72 (+/-4.66%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 9.31% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $79.06 (1.16%) than the resistance at $89.37 (11.73%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?

Alibaba holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.185

Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Opening Price for Alibaba Group Holding Limited of Monday, October 3, 2022

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.

Fair opening price October 3, 2022 Current price
$80.14 $79.99 (Undervalued)

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Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Change
Resistance 83.27 4.10 %
82.07 2.61 %
81.34 1.68 %
Current price: 79.99
Support 78.94 -1.31 %
78.21 -2.23 %
77.01 -3.73 %

Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Chg %
Resistance 98.00 22.52 %
97.43 21.80 %
89.37 11.73 %
Current price 79.99
Support 79.06 -1.16%
78.91 -1.35%
78.80 -1.49%

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About Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Alibaba Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company operates Taobao Marketplace, a social... BABA Profile

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