Alibaba Stock Forecast

Hold candidate since Jul 08, 2026 Gain 8.24%

The Alibaba stock price fell by -1.99% on the last day (Tuesday, 21st Jul 2026) from $120.34 to $117.95. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.53% from a day low at $117.65 to a day high of $119.45. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 20.19% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -6 million shares and in total, 8 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $995.43 million.

The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $119.71 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -24.19% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $64.29 and $90.75 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

BABA Signals & Forecast

The Alibaba stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $116.16 and $110.68. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, July 20, 2026, and so far it has fallen -1.99%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock

Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $117.70 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.80 between high and low, or 1.53%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.45%.

The Alibaba stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $113.05 (-4.15%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 80 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $118.35, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $115.91 and $119.99, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$4.08 (+/-3.52%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.52% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $117.70 (0.21%) than the resistance at $132.58 (12.40%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?

Alibaba holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: 0.042 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 22, 2026 - $118.35 ( 0.339%).

Want to trade but not sure how? Our step-by-step guide can help.
Skip the guide? Open account with our trusted broker*
*Your capital is at risk