Alibaba Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 30, 2026 Gain 2.09%

The Alibaba stock price gained 2.09% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 1st Jul 2026), rising from $96.00 to $98.01. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.11% from a day low at $95.53 to a day high of $99.46. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -11.68% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 29 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 12 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.14 billion.

The stock lies in the lower of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $93.24 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -20.13% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $74.47 and $102.49 at the end of this 3-month period.

BABA Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 26, 2026, and so far it has risen 3.35%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Alibaba stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $118.93. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $97.40. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock

Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $96.00 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $3.93 between high and low, or 4.11%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.56%.

Alibaba is oversold on RSI14 (14). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $97.67, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $96.15 and $99.86, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.71 (+/-3.86%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.86% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $99.80 (1.83%) than the support at $96.00 (2.05%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?

Alibaba holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.255 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 2, 2026 - $97.67 ( 0.347%).

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