Alibaba Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 08, 2026 Loss -3.91%

The Alibaba stock price fell by -3.61% on the last day (Wednesday, 10th Jun 2026) from $119.70 to $115.38. It has now fallen 6 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.44% from a day low at $115.37 to a day high of $118.18. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -9.68% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -907 thousand shares and in total, 11 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.24 billion.

The stock has broken the wide and horizontal trend down. Breaks like this are often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approximately $118.87 is considered to be a "second chance" to get out before further fall. It is, however, important to note that false breaks may appear and that the price may move back into the horizontal trend. A break on increasing volume is considered to be more significant and reliable than breaks on low volume.

BABA Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $122.88 and $131.39. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, May 13, 2026, and so far it has fallen -20.87%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.81 between high and low, or 2.44%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.78%.

Alibaba is oversold on RSI14 (20). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 11th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 11th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $116.31, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $113.20 and $117.56, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$4.35 (+/-3.85%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.85% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $124.91, some $9.53 (8.26%) from the current price of $115.38, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Dividend Warning For BABA

Notice for BABA: Ex-dividend date was Thursday 11th June, 2026. The dividend was $1.05.

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?

Alibaba holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.502 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 11, 2026 - $116.31 ( 0.81%).

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