Alibaba Stock Forecast

Buy candidate since Aug 10, 2026

The Alibaba stock price gained 3.04% on the last trading day (Monday, 10th Aug 2026), rising from $128.41 to $132.32. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.47% from a day low at $128.12 to a day high of $132.57. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 15.06% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 2 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 8 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.12 billion.

Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -10.40% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $78.29 and $118.56 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

BABA Signals & Forecast

The Alibaba stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $127.80 and $112.10. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 26, 2026, and so far it has risen 39.56%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $122.25 and $117.69. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Alibaba finds support just below today's level at $122.25. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $117.69 and $108.98.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $4.45 between high and low, or 3.47%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.40%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $127.64 (-3.54%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 30 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 11th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 11th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $131.00, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $130.38 and $134.26, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.88 (+/-2.97%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.97% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $132.58 (0.20%) than the support at $122.25 (7.61%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 3.028 Buy Candidate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on August 11, 2026 - $131.00 ( 1.00%).

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