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Weaker technical forecast for Alibaba as stock downgraded to Strong Sell Candidate., 2 months ago


The Alibaba stock price fell by -4.39% on the last day (Thursday, 17th Mar 2022) from $104.98 to $100.37. During the day the stock fluctuated 6.39% from a day low at $95.77 to a day high of $101.89. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.65% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -77 million shares and in total, 80 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.08 billion.

On Mar 14, 2022 "JPMorgan Chase & Co." gave "$180.00 - $65.00" rating for BABA. The price target was changed from $77.76 to 10.3%.

The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $104.50 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -21.67% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $59.37 and $81.85 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.


There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Alibaba stock holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $110.62. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $91.49. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, March 16, 2022, and so far it has fallen -4.39%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $86.71 and $77.76.There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Alibaba finds support just below today's level at $86.71. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $77.76 and $76.76.

This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $6.12 between high and low, or 6.39%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 10.49%.

Alibaba holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Strong Sell candidate.

Check full Alibaba forecast and analysis here.