Weaker technical forecast for Microsoft as stock downgraded to Buy Candidate.

The Microsoft stock price fell by -0.310% on the last day (Wednesday, 8th Feb 2023) from $267.56 to $266.73. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.96% from a day low at $266.21 to a day high of $276.76. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 10.86% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 4 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 54 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $14.46 billion.

The last rating was given by Credit Suisse on Jan 26, 2023. The price target was changed from 365 to 285.Over the last 90 days, this security got 4 buy, 17 sell, and 0 hold ratings.

The stockis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $267.63 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Microsoft stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $227.58 and $271.99 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

The Microsoft stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $259.22 and $241.95. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, February 07, 2023, and so far it has fallen -0.310%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $244.69 and $240.61.There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Microsoft finds support just below today's level at $244.69. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $240.61 and $229.10.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $10.55 between high and low, or 3.96%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.87%.

The Microsoft stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for Microsoft stock to perform well in the short-term period.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.