Weaker technical forecast for QQQ as ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate

The QQQ ETF price fell by -1.39% on the last day (Tuesday, 1st Oct 2024) from $488.07 to $481.27. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.22% from a day low at $477.40 to a day high of $488.00. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.64% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 12 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 41 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $19.96 billion.

The ETFis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $489.14 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect QQQ ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $424.61 and $482.33 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

The QQQ ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $485.68. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $474.01. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, September 26, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.68%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $448.75 and $439.53.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, QQQ finds support just below today's level at $448.75. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $439.53 and $435.37.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $10.60 between high and low, or 2.22%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.34%.

QQQ holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.