Weaker technical forecast for TQQQ as ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate

The TQQQ ETF price fell by -2.55% on the last day (Wednesday, 31st Dec 2025) from $54.10 to $52.72. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.95% from a day low at $52.65 to a day high of $54.20. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 0.75% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 18 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 56 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.93 billion.

The ETF is moving within a very wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect TQQQ ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $46.84 and $60.86 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The TQQQ ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $54.46 and $53.30. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.77%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

TQQQ finds support from accumulated volume at $52.33 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.56 between high and low, or 2.95%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.74%.

TQQQ holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Sell candidate.