Webull Shares Face Bearish Momentum as Earnings Loom; Traders Eye Support at $12.29

Technical Analysis

Webull Corporation’s (BULL) last closing price of $12.41 on May 16, 2025, reflects a modest intraday gain of 0.98%. The stock remains below its 50-day moving average of $15.97, indicating short-term bearish momentum. However, it is slightly below the 200-day moving average of $12.59, suggesting the longer-term trend is near a potential inflection point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 signals the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet in extreme conditions, which may limit immediate downside. The MACD’s negative value (-3.86) implies persistent bearish momentum over the last three months. Volume on May 16 at 11.60 million shares is significantly above the average volume of 3.84 million, indicating increased trading interest and potential volatility.

Support is established at $12.29, just below the recent close, while resistance lies at $14.09. Given the close proximity to support and the elevated volume, the stock may test the support level in the next trading day (May 19, 2025), but a rebound near $12.50 is also plausible. For the upcoming week, unless bullish catalysts emerge, the price is likely to remain range-bound between $12.29 and $14.09, with a downward bias pressured by the 50-day moving average resistance and negative momentum indicators.

Fundamental Analysis

Webull’s market capitalization stands at approximately $5.73 billion, reflecting mid-cap status. The trailing twelve months (TTM) EPS is negative at -$1.02, and the negative P/E ratio of -12.17 corroborates earnings losses, highlighting the company’s unprofitable position. This represents a significant risk factor for value investors focused on profitability. Nonetheless, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of $15.77 exceeds the current closing price by about 27%, suggesting that the intrinsic value is higher than the current market price, potentially indicating undervaluation if future earnings can improve.

The wide discrepancy between the current price and the 52-week high of $79.56 underscores significant downside from previous peak valuations, likely reflecting a combination of deteriorated financial performance and market sentiment. The upcoming Q1 2025 earnings release scheduled for May 22, 2025, will provide critical data points on revenue growth, profitability trajectory, and operational metrics, which could redefine near-term fundamentals and price direction.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The DCF estimate near $15.77 suggests room for appreciation if the company can materially improve its fundamentals, mainly through profitability and cash flow generation. However, current negative earnings and momentum indicate that these improvements are not yet priced in. Long-term investors should consider the company’s ability to regain profitability, sustain growth, and manage risk around earnings volatility. The stock’s low RSI and price discount relative to intrinsic value can present an entry point for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, particularly if the company has growth prospects in its sector. Conversely, weak profitability metrics and technical resistance levels suggest patience may be required before new capital is deployed.

Overall Evaluation

Webull Corporation currently exhibits bearish technical signals and unprofitable fundamentals, with a market price below its recent 50-day moving average and negative earnings. Its intrinsic value implies some upside, but risks related to earnings and volatility remain elevated. Near-term trading is expected to be range-bound with potential test of support around $12.29. The forthcoming earnings report on May 22, 2025, is a critical event that will likely influence momentum and investor sentiment.

The stock can be categorized as a Hold candidate — it is not oversold enough for a clear short-term entry, nor does it demonstrate sufficient fundamental strength to shift to a strong buy stance. Investors requiring clearer evidence of a turnaround and improved earnings should await the upcoming earnings release or more sustained technical improvement. Meanwhile, downside risk is somewhat cushioned by support levels and intrinsic value estimates above current prices.