XLE ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Thursday trading session

The XLE ETF price gained 0.762% on the last trading day (Thursday, 28th Aug 2025), rising from $89.22 to $89.90. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.55% from a day low at $88.66 to a day high of $90.03. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.07% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -1 million shares and in total, 12 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.08 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $90.47 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 2.81% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $87.15 and $93.01 at the end of this 3-month period.

The XLE ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $88.00 and $86.55. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, August 11, 2025, and so far it has risen 6.71%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.

XLE finds support from accumulated volume at $88.10 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.37 between high and low, or 1.55%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.48%.

The XLE ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETF may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

XLE holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.