Xle ETF Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 11, 2026 Loss -6.20%

The XLE ETF price fell by -1.63% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Jun 2026) from $54.46 to $53.57. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.56% from a day low at $52.94 to a day high of $53.77. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -6.66% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 8 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 43 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.29 billion.

The ETF lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $52.67 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -5.01% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $50.03 and $57.05 at the end of this 3-month period.

XLE Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The XLE ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $54.49 and $57.34. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, and so far it has fallen -12.60%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for XLE ETF

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.83 between high and low, or 1.56%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.60%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (XLE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund to open at $53.43, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $52.91 and $54.23, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.32 (+/-2.49%) up or down from last closing price. If Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.49% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $55.02, some $1.45 (2.71%) from the current price of $53.57, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF A Buy?

XLE holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.

Current score: -4.951 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 25, 2026 - $53.43 ( 0.271%).

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