Xle ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Oct 31, 2025 Gain 2.50%

The XLE ETF price decreased by -1.84% on the previous trading day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025), dropping from $92.02 to $90.33. Throughout the last trading session, the ETF experienced fluctuations of 2.18%, with a day low of $89.98 and a day high of $91.94. The price has increased in 7 out of the last 10 days, gaining 2.48% over the past 2 weeks. Volume rose on the last day by 2 million shares, despite the declining prices. This could serve as an early warning sign, indicating a slight increase in risk over the coming days. In total, 19 million shares were traded, amounting to approximately $1.68 billion.

The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect XLE ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $86.39 and $93.36 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

XLE Signals & Forecast

The XLE ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $90.64. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $88.29. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, November 14, 2025, and so far it has fallen -1.84%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for XLE ETF

XLE finds support from accumulated volume at $88.97 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.96 between high and low, or 2.18%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.82%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $87.21 (-3.46%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (XLE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund to open at $90.75, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $89.55 and $91.11, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.57 (+/-1.75%) up or down from last closing price. If Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.75% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $90.34 (0.01%) than the support at $88.97 (1.51%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF A Buy?

XLE holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: -0.528 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $90.75 ( 0.465%).

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