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The XLE ETF price gained 0.223% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 29th Jan 2025), rising from $89.50 to $89.70. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.12% from a day low at $89.16 to a day high of $90.16. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.67% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -3 million shares and in total, 10 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $905.18 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -4.84% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $77.40 and $89.30 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
The XLE ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $91.20. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $88.58. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, January 17, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.52%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.
XLE finds support from accumulated volume at $88.04 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.00 between high and low, or 1.12%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.58%.
XLE holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Check full XLE forecast and analysis here.