China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Evaluation of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock price gained 1.72% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th May 2024), rising from HK$4.08 to HK$4.15. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.96% from a day low at HK$4.05 to a day high of HK$4.17. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 13.7% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -136 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$9.96 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 19.22% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between HK$4.42 and HK$5.22 at the end of this 3-month period.
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1866.HK Signals & Forecast
The China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at HK$3.95 and HK$3.73. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, April 29, 2024, and so far it has risen 16.57%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at HK$3.77 and HK$3.61. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. finds support just below today's level at HK$3.77. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at HK$3.61 and HK$3.16.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved HK$0.120 between high and low, or 2.96%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.17%.
Our recommended stop-loss: HK$4.03 (-2.98%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 76 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 12 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (1866.HK) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to open at HK$4.12, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between HK$4.02 and HK$4.28, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-HK$0.131 (+/-3.15%) up or down from last closing price. If China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.31% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ HK$3.77, some HK$0.380 (9.16%) from the current price of HK$4.15, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock A Buy?
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| HK$4.12 ( 0.643%) | HK$4.15 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 1866.HK
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 4.24 | 2.25 % | |
| R2 | 4.20 | 1.14 % | ||
| R1 | 4.17 | 0.462 % | ||
| Current price: | 4.15 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.08 | -1.75 % | |
| S2 | 4.05 | -2.43 % | ||
| S3 | 4.00 | -3.53 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 4.15 | |||
| Support | S1 | 3.77 | -9.16% | |
| S2 | 3.61 | -13.01% | ||
| S3 | 3.16 | -23.86% |
1866 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | Jun 07, 2024 | HK$0.264 | 6.36% |
| 2 | Jun 06, 2023 | Jun 06, 2023 | Jun 06, 2023 | HK$0.250 | 6.70% |
| 3 | Jun 28, 2022 | Jun 28, 2022 | Jun 28, 2022 | HK$0.233 | 3.89% |
| 4 | Jun 29, 2021 | Jun 29, 2021 | Jun 29, 2021 | HK$0.119 | 2.73% |
| 5 | Mar 30, 2020 | Jun 24, 2020 | Jul 31, 2020 | HK$0.0873 | 3.99% |
FAQ
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