The First Custodian Fund Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
The First Custodian Fund stock upgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Buy Candidate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on Jun 25, 2024)
The The First Custodian Fund stock price fell by -2.00% on the last day (Tuesday, 25th Jun 2024) from ₹141.23 to ₹138.41. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0% from a day low at ₹138.41 to a day high of ₹138.41. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 52% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -616 shares and in total, 3 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹372.88 thousand.
The stock lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at ₹142.49 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 104.58% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹186.45 and ₹291.49 at the end of this 3-month period.
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1STCUS.BO Signals & Forecast
The The First Custodian Fund stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at ₹127.31 and ₹85.17. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 24, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.00%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for The First Custodian Fund stock
The First Custodian Fund finds support from accumulated volume at ₹134.51 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved ₹0 between high and low, or 0%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.09%.
The The First Custodian Fund stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: ₹133.65 (-3.44%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. The RSI14 is 92 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 13 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (1STCUS.BO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 26th we expect The First Custodian Fund to open at ₹138.41, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹133.66 and ₹143.16, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹4.75 (+/-3.43%) up or down from last closing price. If The First Custodian Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.86% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at ₹141.23 (2.04%) than the support at ₹134.51 (2.82%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is The First Custodian Fund stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for The First Custodian Fund stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 3.460 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for The First Custodian Fund of Wednesday, June 26, 2024
| Fair opening price June 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹138.41 ( 0%) | ₹138.41 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 1STCUS.BO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 138.41 | - |
| R2 | 138.41 | - |
| R1 | 138.41 | - |
| Price | 138.41 | |
| S1 | 138.41 | - |
| S2 | 138.41 | - |
| S3 | 138.41 | - |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0 | - |
| R2 | 0 | - |
| R1 | 141.23 | 2.04% |
| Price | 138.41 | |
| S1 | 134.51 | -2.82% |
| S2 | 128.11 | -7.44% |
| S3 | 110.67 | -20.04% |
1STCUS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 18, 2023 | Oct 26, 2023 | ₹1.00 | 2.39% |
FAQ
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