Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Stronger technical forecast for Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) stock price after Friday trading.
(Updated on Jun 14, 2024)
The Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) stock price fell by -1.47% on the last day (Friday, 14th Jun 2024) from HK$13.62 to HK$13.42. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.60% from a day low at HK$13.32 to a day high of HK$13.80. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 5.01% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 499 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 4 million shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$54.90 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 3.70% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between HK$12.15 and HK$14.64 at the end of this 3-month period.
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2196.HK Signals & Forecast
The Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately HK$13.69. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately HK$13.05. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, June 07, 2024, and so far it has fallen -4.69%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) stock
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) finds support from accumulated volume at HK$13.08 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved HK$0.480 between high and low, or 3.60%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.59%.
Our recommended stop-loss: HK$12.79 (-4.71%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 40 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (2196.HK) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 17th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 17th we expect Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. to open at HK$13.51, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between HK$12.89 and HK$13.95, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-HK$0.529 (+/-3.94%) up or down from last closing price. If Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.89% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at HK$13.50 (0.60%) than the support at HK$13.08 (2.53%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. stock A Buy?
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.456 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. of Monday, June 17, 2024
| Fair opening price June 17, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| HK$13.51 ( 0.695%) | HK$13.42 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 2196.HK
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 13.99 | 4.27% |
| R2 | 13.81 | 2.91% |
| R1 | 13.70 | 2.06% |
| Price | 13.42 | |
| S1 | 13.33 | -0.671% |
| S2 | 13.22 | -1.51% |
| S3 | 13.03 | -2.88% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 13.94 | 3.87% |
| R2 | 13.66 | 1.79% |
| R1 | 13.50 | 0.596% |
| Price | 13.42 | |
| S1 | 13.08 | -2.53% |
| S2 | 12.72 | -5.22% |
| S3 | 12.24 | -8.79% |
2196 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jul 31, 2023 | Jul 31, 2023 | Jul 31, 2023 | HK$0.460 | 2.24% |
| 2 | Jun 08, 2022 | Jun 08, 2022 | Jun 08, 2022 | HK$0.660 | 2.05% |
| 3 | Jul 07, 2021 | Jul 07, 2021 | Jul 07, 2021 | HK$0.520 | 0.90% |
| 4 | Jul 21, 2020 | Jul 21, 2020 | Jul 21, 2020 | HK$0.430 | 1.20% |
| 5 | Jul 24, 2019 | Jul 24, 2019 | Jul 24, 2019 | HK$0.360 | 1.48% |
FAQ
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