TOM Group Limited Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Stronger technical forecast for TOM Group Limited stock price after Friday trading.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The TOM Group Limited stock price gained 1.96% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th May 2024), rising from HK$0.510 to HK$0.520. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.96% from a day low at HK$0.510 to a day high of HK$0.520. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 4% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 300 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 312 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$162.24 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at HK$0.537 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -25.25% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between HK$0.312 and HK$0.401 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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2383.HK Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 25, 2024, and so far it has risen 13.04%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). TOM Group Limited has increased volume and follows the last lift in the price. This is considered to be a technical positive sign as volume should follow the price-formation. Higher liquidity also reduces the general risk. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The TOM Group Limited stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at HK$0.536. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at HK$0.509. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for TOM Group Limited stock
TOM Group Limited finds support from accumulated volume at HK$0.500 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved HK$0.0100 between high and low, or 1.96%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.41%.
The TOM Group Limited stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: HK$0.500 (-3.89%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 77 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 14 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (2383.HK) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect TOM Group Limited to open at HK$0.517, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between HK$0.496 and HK$0.544, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-HK$0.0245 (+/-4.70%) up or down from last closing price. If TOM Group Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 9.41% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at HK$0.530 (1.92%) than the support at HK$0.500 (3.85%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is TOM Group Limited stock A Buy?
TOM Group Limited holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.522 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for TOM Group Limited of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| HK$0.517 ( 0.641%) | HK$0.520 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 2383.HK
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0.527 | 1.28 % | |
| R2 | 0.523 | 0.547 % | ||
| R1 | 0.520 | 0.0936 % | ||
| Current price: | 0.520 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0.513 | -1.38 % | |
| S2 | 0.510 | -1.83 % | ||
| S3 | 0.507 | -2.56 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0.620 | 19.23 % | |
| R2 | 0.560 | 7.69 % | ||
| R1 | 0.530 | 1.92 % | ||
| Current price | 0.520 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0.500 | -3.85% | |
| S2 | 0.490 | -5.77% | ||
| S3 | 0.470 | -9.62% |
FAQ
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