Aozora Bank,Ltd. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Wednesday for Aozora Bank,Ltd.
(Updated on May 15, 2024)
The Aozora Bank,Ltd. stock price fell by -1.85% on the last day (Wednesday, 15th May 2024) from JP¥2,402.00 to JP¥2,357.50. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.78% from a day low at JP¥2,352.50 to a day high of JP¥2,418.00. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -4.77% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -2 million shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥4.84 billion.
The stock is moving within a very wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Aozora Bank,Ltd. stock with a 90% probability to be traded between JP¥2,017.66 and JP¥2,743.85 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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8304.T Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Aozora Bank,Ltd. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at JP¥2,422.00 and JP¥2,450.77. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, February 29, 2024, and so far it has fallen -14.23%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Aozora Bank,Ltd. stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at JP¥2,215.00 and JP¥2,136.00. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Aozora Bank,Ltd. finds support just below today's level at JP¥2,215.00. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at JP¥2,136.00 and JP¥2,022.00.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved JP¥65.50 between high and low, or 2.78%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.59%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (8304.T) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 16th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 16th we expect Aozora Bank,Ltd. to open at JP¥2,376.00, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥2,294.45 and JP¥2,420.55, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥63.05 (+/-2.67%) up or down from last closing price. If Aozora Bank,Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.35% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥2,404.50 (1.99%) than the support at JP¥2,215.00 (6.04%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Aozora Bank,Ltd. stock A Buy?
Aozora Bank,Ltd. holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -3.866 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Aozora Bank,Ltd. of Thursday, May 16, 2024
| Fair opening price May 16, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| JP¥2,376.00 ( 0.785%) | JP¥2,357.50 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 8304.T
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 2,441.50 | 3.56 % | |
| R2 | 2,416.48 | 2.50 % | ||
| R1 | 2,401.02 | 1.85 % | ||
| Current price: | 2,357.50 | |||
| Support | S1 | 2,350.98 | -0.277 % | |
| S2 | 2,335.52 | -0.93 % | ||
| S3 | 2,310.50 | -1.99 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 2,748.50 | 16.59 % | |
| R2 | 2,449.50 | 3.90 % | ||
| R1 | 2,404.50 | 1.99 % | ||
| Current price | 2,357.50 | |||
| Support | S1 | 2,215.00 | -6.04% | |
| S2 | 2,136.00 | -9.40% | ||
| S3 | 2,022.00 | -14.23% |
8304 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 27, 2024 | Jun 27, 2024 | Sep 01, 2024 | JP¥19.00 | 0.81% |
| 2 | Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Mar 01, 2024 | JP¥39.00 | 1.45% |
| 3 | Sep 28, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | JP¥38.00 | 1.23% |
| 4 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | JP¥38.00 | 1.42% |
| 5 | Mar 30, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | JP¥40.00 | 1.67% |
FAQ
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