Nomura Holdings, Inc. Stock Forecast
Nomura Holdings, Inc. stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate
(Updated on Jun 26, 2024)
The Nomura Holdings, Inc. stock price gained 0.417% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 26th Jun 2024), rising from JP¥934.60 to JP¥938.50. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.91% from a day low at JP¥928.50 to a day high of JP¥946.20. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.46% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -2 million shares and in total, 12 million shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥10.93 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Nomura Holdings, Inc. stock with a 90% probability to be traded between JP¥856.44 and JP¥977.66 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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8604.T Signals & Forecast
The Nomura Holdings, Inc. stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at JP¥908.71 and JP¥924.17. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, June 20, 2024, and so far it has risen 5.39%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Nomura Holdings, Inc. stock
Nomura Holdings, Inc. finds support from accumulated volume at JP¥927.80 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved JP¥17.70 between high and low, or 1.91%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.80%.
Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥887.29 (-5.46%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 17 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (8604.T) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 27th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 27th we expect Nomura Holdings, Inc. to open at JP¥937.73, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥914.80 and JP¥962.20, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥23.70 (+/-2.53%) up or down from last closing price. If Nomura Holdings, Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.05% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥946.10 (0.81%) than the support at JP¥927.80 (1.14%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Nomura Holdings, Inc. stock A Buy?
Nomura Holdings, Inc. holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.065 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Nomura Holdings, Inc. of Thursday, June 27, 2024
| Fair opening price June 27, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| JP¥937.73 ( 0.0817%) | JP¥938.50 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 8604.T
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 955.43 | 1.80% |
| R2 | 948.67 | 1.08% |
| R1 | 944.49 | 0.639% |
| Price | 938.50 | |
| S1 | 930.97 | -0.80% |
| S2 | 926.79 | -1.25% |
| S3 | 920.03 | -1.97% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 988.30 | 5.31% |
| R2 | 950.50 | 1.28% |
| R1 | 946.10 | 0.81% |
| Price | 938.50 | |
| S1 | 927.80 | -1.14% |
| S2 | 915.90 | -2.41% |
| S3 | 876.40 | -6.62% |
8604 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 28, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | Jun 01, 2024 | JP¥9.00 | 0.95% |
| 2 | Sep 28, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Dec 01, 2023 | JP¥8.00 | 1.32% |
| 3 | Mar 30, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | JP¥12.00 | 2.39% |
| 4 | Sep 29, 2022 | Sep 29, 2022 | Sep 29, 2022 | JP¥5.00 | 1.04% |
| 5 | Mar 30, 2022 | Mar 30, 2022 | Mar 30, 2022 | JP¥14.00 | 2.63% |
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