Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Stronger technical forecast for Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. stock price after Thursday trading.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. stock price fell by -2.73% on the last day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024) from JP¥476.00 to JP¥463.00. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.23% from a day low at JP¥459.00 to a day high of JP¥483.00. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still up by 17.22% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -228 thousand shares and in total, 162 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥75.10 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 5.86% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between JP¥412.47 and JP¥586.00 at the end of this 3-month period.
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9417.T Signals & Forecast
The Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately JP¥463.57. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately JP¥418.89. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 26, 2024, and so far it has fallen -16.12%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at JP¥420.00 and JP¥408.00. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. finds support just below today's level at JP¥420.00. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at JP¥408.00 and JP¥400.00.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved JP¥24.00 between high and low, or 5.23%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 9.80%.
Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥436.15 (-5.80%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (9417.T) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 7th
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 7th we expect Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. to open at JP¥468.33, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥438.02 and JP¥487.98, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥24.98 (+/-5.39%) up or down from last closing price. If Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 10.79% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥472.00 (1.94%) than the support at JP¥420.00 (9.29%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 2.628 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Smartvalue Co.,Ltd. of Tuesday, May 7, 2024
| Fair opening price May 7, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| JP¥468.33 ( 1.15%) | JP¥463.00 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 9417.T
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 492.33 | 6.34 % | |
| R2 | 483.17 | 4.36 % | ||
| R1 | 477.50 | 3.13 % | ||
| Current price: | 463.00 | |||
| Support | S1 | 459.17 | -0.83 % | |
| S2 | 453.50 | -2.05 % | ||
| S3 | 444.33 | -4.03 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 497.00 | 7.34 % | |
| R2 | 476.00 | 2.81 % | ||
| R1 | 472.00 | 1.94 % | ||
| Current price | 463.00 | |||
| Support | S1 | 420.00 | -9.29% | |
| S2 | 408.00 | -11.88% | ||
| S3 | 400.00 | -13.61% |
9417 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 27, 2024 | Jun 27, 2024 | Jun 27, 2024 | JP¥0 | 0% |
| 2 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | JP¥8.00 | 1.98% |
| 3 | Jun 29, 2022 | Jun 29, 2022 | Jun 29, 2022 | JP¥8.00 | 1.56% |
| 4 | Jun 29, 2021 | Jun 29, 2021 | Jun 29, 2021 | JP¥8.00 | 1.12% |
| 5 | Jun 29, 2020 | Jun 29, 2020 | Jun 29, 2020 | JP¥8.00 | 0.672% |
FAQ
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