Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. as stock downgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. stock price fell by -0.331% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from $18.10 to $18.04. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.610% from a day low at $18.04 to a day high of $18.15. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.37% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 7 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 9 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $157.49 thousand.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -4.79% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $16.29 and $17.99 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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ABR-PE Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, May 23, 2024, and so far it has risen 3.20%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $18.08 and $18.07. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, June 03, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Golden Star
The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, June 03, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. stock
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. finds support from accumulated volume at $17.98 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.110 between high and low, or 0.610%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 0.460%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ABR-PE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. to open at $18.08, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $17.83 and $18.25, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.214 (+/-1.19%) up or down from last closing price. If Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.38% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $18.07 (0.17%) than the support at $17.98 (0.33%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. stock A Buy?
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.741 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $18.08 ( 0.203%) | $18.04 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ABR-PE
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 18.19 | 0.81% |
| R2 | 18.14 | 0.580% |
| R1 | 18.12 | 0.436% |
| Price | 18.04 | |
| S1 | 18.03 | -0.0297% |
| S2 | 18.01 | -0.174% |
| S3 | 17.97 | -0.407% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 19.48 | 7.98% |
| R2 | 18.20 | 0.89% |
| R1 | 18.07 | 0.166% |
| Price | 18.04 | |
| S1 | 17.98 | -0.333% |
| S2 | 17.85 | -1.05% |
| S3 | 17.48 | -3.10% |
ABR-PE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 12, 2024 | Apr 12, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | $0.391 | 2.21% |
| 2 | Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 30, 2024 | $0.391 | 2.15% |
| 3 | Oct 12, 2023 | Oct 12, 2023 | Oct 30, 2023 | $0.391 | 2.42% |
| 4 | Jul 13, 2023 | Jul 13, 2023 | Jul 31, 2023 | $0.391 | 2.05% |
| 5 | Apr 13, 2023 | Apr 13, 2023 | May 01, 2023 | $0.391 | 2.19% |
FAQ
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