Betashares Australian Government Bond ETF Forecast
Betashares Australian Government Bond ETF downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Wednesday trading session.
(Updated on Jun 26, 2024)
The Betashares Australian Government Bond ETF price fell by -0.94% on the last day (Wednesday, 26th Jun 2024) from $41.62 to $41.23. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.04% from a day low at $41.18 to a day high of $41.61. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.22% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 989 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 13 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $527.58 thousand.
The ETF is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Betashares Australian Government Bond ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $40.21 and $41.56 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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AGVT.AX Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Betashares Australian Government Bond ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $41.51 and $41.27. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 17, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.20%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Betashares Australian Government Bond gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Betashares Australian Government Bond ETF
Betashares Australian Government Bond finds support from accumulated volume at $41.17 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.430 between high and low, or 1.04%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.397%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (AGVT.AX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 27th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 27th we expect Betashares Australian Government Bond Etf to open at $41.34, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $41.03 and $41.43, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.195 (+/-0.47%) up or down from last closing price. If Betashares Australian Government Bond Etf takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.95% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $41.17 (0.15%) than the resistance at $41.34 (0.27%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Betashares Australian Government Bond Etf ETF A Buy?
Betashares Australian Government Bond holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.678 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Betashares Australian Government Bond Etf of Thursday, June 27, 2024
| Fair opening price June 27, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $41.34 ( 0.267%) | $41.23 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AGVT.AX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 41.77 | 1.31% |
| R2 | 41.61 | 0.91% |
| R1 | 41.50 | 0.665% |
| Price | 41.23 | |
| S1 | 41.18 | -0.132% |
| S2 | 41.07 | -0.378% |
| S3 | 40.91 | -0.776% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 41.86 | 1.53% |
| R2 | 41.55 | 0.776% |
| R1 | 41.34 | 0.267% |
| Price | 41.23 | |
| S1 | 41.17 | -0.146% |
| S2 | 41.04 | -0.461% |
| S3 | 40.90 | -0.80% |
FAQ
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