Alibaba Group Holding Limited Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock price ended at 70.60€ on Thursday, after losing 2.35%.
(Updated on Jun 13, 2024)
The Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock price fell by -2.35% on the last day (Thursday, 13th Jun 2024) from 72.30€ to 70.60€. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.28% from a day low at 70.30€ to a day high of 71.20€. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -4.21% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -34 thousand shares and in total, 72 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately 5.08€ million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 13.26% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between 79.96€ and 96.33€ at the end of this 3-month period.
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AHLA.F Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at 72.70€ and 74.13€. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, May 17, 2024, and so far it has fallen -13.90%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock
Alibaba Group Holding Limited finds support from accumulated volume at 69.00€ and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved 0.90€ between high and low, or 1.28%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.44%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (AHLA.F) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 14th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 14th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at 70.70€, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between 68.74€ and 72.46€, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-1.86€ (+/-2.63%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.27% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at 69.00€ (2.27%) than the resistance at 72.30€ (2.41%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?
The Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Alibaba Group Holding Limited will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -2.688 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Alibaba Group Holding Limited of Friday, June 14, 2024
| Fair opening price June 14, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| 70.70€ ( 0.142%) | 70.60€ |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AHLA.F
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 71.60 | 1.42% |
| R2 | 71.26 | 0.93% |
| R1 | 71.04 | 0.629% |
| Price | 70.60 | |
| S1 | 70.36 | -0.345% |
| S2 | 70.14 | -0.646% |
| S3 | 69.80 | -1.13% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 74.70 | 5.81% |
| R2 | 73.10 | 3.54% |
| R1 | 72.30 | 2.41% |
| Price | 70.60 | |
| S1 | 69.00 | -2.27% |
| S2 | 67.75 | -4.04% |
| S3 | 66.10 | -6.37% |
AHLA Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | Jul 12, 2024 | 1.52€ | 2.15% |
| 2 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | Jan 18, 2024 | 0.90€ | 1.42% |
FAQ
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