Alpargatas S.A. Stock Forecast
Alpargatas S.A. stock price ended at R$10.16 on Wednesday, after gaining 0.99%.
(Updated on May 22, 2024)
The Alpargatas S.A. stock price gained 0.99% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 22nd May 2024), rising from R$10.06 to R$10.16. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.20% from a day low at R$10.04 to a day high of R$10.16. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.21% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -2 thousand shares and in total, 700 shares were bought and sold for approximately R$7.11 thousand. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -4.59% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between R$8.21 and R$10.15 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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ALPA3.SA Signals & Forecast
The Alpargatas S.A. stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately R$10.26. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately R$9.80. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, and so far it has fallen -4.96%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may not be. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alpargatas S.A. stock
Alpargatas S.A. finds support from accumulated volume at R$9.88 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day, but be aware of low or falling volume as this increases the risk. During the last day, the stock moved R$0.120 between high and low, or 1.20%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.09%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ALPA3.SA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 23rd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 23rd we expect Alpargatas S.A. to open at R$10.12, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between R$9.84 and R$10.48, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-R$0.319 (+/-3.14%) up or down from last closing price. If Alpargatas S.A. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.27% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at R$10.20 (0.39%) than the support at R$9.88 (2.76%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Alpargatas S.A. stock A Buy?
Alpargatas S.A. holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -3.366 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Alpargatas S.A. of Thursday, May 23, 2024
| Fair opening price May 23, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| R$10.12 ( 0.394%) | R$10.16 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ALPA3.SA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 10.24 | 0.787 % | |
| R2 | 10.19 | 0.336 % | ||
| R1 | 10.17 | 0.0575 % | ||
| Current price: | 10.16 | |||
| Support | S1 | 10.07 | -0.84 % | |
| S2 | 10.05 | -1.12 % | ||
| S3 | 10.00 | -1.57 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 10.50 | 3.35 % | |
| R2 | 10.31 | 1.48 % | ||
| R1 | 10.20 | 0.394 % | ||
| Current price | 10.16 | |||
| Support | S1 | 9.88 | -2.76% | |
| S2 | 9.70 | -4.53% | ||
| S3 | 9.62 | -5.31% |
ALPA3 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 03, 2022 | Jan 03, 2022 | Jan 03, 2022 | R$0.148 | 0.479% |
| 2 | Nov 04, 2021 | Nov 04, 2021 | Nov 04, 2021 | R$0.247 | 0.714% |
| 3 | Feb 17, 2020 | Feb 17, 2020 | Feb 17, 2020 | R$0.0502 | 0.168% |
| 4 | Aug 20, 2018 | Aug 20, 2018 | Aug 20, 2018 | R$0.0620 | 0.620% |
| 5 | May 21, 2018 | May 21, 2018 | May 21, 2018 | R$0.0582 | 0.560% |
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