Aileron Therapeutics Inc Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Big movements in Aileron Therapeutics Inc stock price on Tuesday moving 11.86% between high and low
(Updated on Apr 30, 2024)
The Aileron Therapeutics Inc stock price fell by -7.52% on the last day (Tuesday, 30th Apr 2024) from $4.92 to $4.55. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 11.86% from a day low at $4.47 to a day high of $5.00. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -14.95% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 159 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 319 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.45 million.
The stock lies in the lower part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $4.38 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 14.59% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $5.02 and $8.34 at the end of this 3-month period.
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ALRN Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has risen 7.06%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Aileron Therapeutics Inc stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $4.84 and $5.53. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Aileron Therapeutics Inc gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Aileron Therapeutics Inc stock
Aileron Therapeutics Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $4.34 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.530 between high and low, or 11.86%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 7.74%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $4.38 (-3.75%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 9 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (ALRN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 1st we expect Aileron Therapeutics Inc to open at $4.67, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $3.93 and $5.17, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.619 (+/-13.61%) up or down from last closing price. If Aileron Therapeutics Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 27.22% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $4.75 (4.40%) than the support at $4.34 (4.62%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Aileron Therapeutics Inc stock A Buy?
Aileron Therapeutics Inc holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.535 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Aileron Therapeutics Inc of Wednesday, May 1, 2024
| Fair opening price May 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $4.67 ( 2.71%) | $4.55 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ALRN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.20 | 14.36 % | |
| R2 | 5.00 | 9.91 % | ||
| R1 | 4.88 | 7.16 % | ||
| Current price: | 4.55 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.47 | -1.74 % | |
| S2 | 4.35 | -4.49 % | ||
| S3 | 4.14 | -8.94 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.35 | 17.58 % | |
| R2 | 5.00 | 9.89 % | ||
| R1 | 4.75 | 4.40 % | ||
| Current price | 4.55 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.34 | -4.62% | |
| S2 | 4.25 | -6.59% | ||
| S3 | 4.15 | -8.75% |
FAQ
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