Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock price ended at $10.80 on Friday, after gaining 0.652%.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock price gained 0.652% on the last trading day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024), rising from $10.73 to $10.80. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.49% from a day low at $10.73 to a day high of $10.89. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.37% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -114 thousand shares and in total, 402 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.34 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -2.41% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $10.01 and $11.16 at the end of this 3-month period.
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ARI Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $10.95. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $10.77. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 4.05%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance finds support from accumulated volume at $10.74 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.160 (1.49%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.74%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ARI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance to open at $10.81, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $10.56 and $11.04, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.235 (+/-2.18%) up or down from last closing price. If Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.36% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $10.74 (0.56%) than the resistance at $11.01 (1.94%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Earnings coming up
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance will release earnings AMC on Monday, April 29, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.350. We will update the financials statements for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 2.41% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock A Buy?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -2.700 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $10.81 ( 0.0617%) | $10.80 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARI
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 10.97 | 1.54 % | |
| R2 | 10.91 | 0.98 % | ||
| R1 | 10.87 | 0.628 % | ||
| Current price: | 10.80 | |||
| Support | S1 | 10.75 | -0.504 % | |
| S2 | 10.71 | -0.85 % | ||
| S3 | 10.65 | -1.42 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.16 | 3.33 % | |
| R2 | 11.07 | 2.50 % | ||
| R1 | 11.01 | 1.94 % | ||
| Current price | 10.80 | |||
| Support | S1 | 10.74 | -0.556% | |
| S2 | 10.63 | -1.57% | ||
| S3 | 10.51 | -2.69% |
ARI Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 12, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 15, 2024 | $0.350 | 3.31% |
| 2 | Dec 12, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 12, 2024 | $0.350 | 2.99% |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Oct 13, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.47% |
| 4 | Jun 13, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jul 14, 2023 | $0.350 | 2.98% |
| 5 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | Apr 14, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.81% |
FAQ
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