Blackbaud Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Blackbaud stock downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Blackbaud stock price fell by -0.422% on the last day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024) from $78.28 to $77.95. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.07% from a day low at $77.70 to a day high of $79.31. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days but is still up by 1.6% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -14 thousand shares and in total, 138 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $10.78 million.
The stockis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $79.12 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Blackbaud stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $65.63 and $77.99 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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BLKB Signals & Forecast
The Blackbaud stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $77.94 and $74.28. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.55%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Blackbaud stock
Blackbaud finds support from accumulated volume at $75.97 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.61 between high and low, or 2.07%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.63%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (BLKB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Blackbaud to open at $78.32, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $75.81 and $80.09, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.14 (+/-2.75%) up or down from last closing price. If Blackbaud takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.50% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $78.26 (0.40%) than the support at $75.97 (2.54%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Blackbaud will release earnings AMC on Tuesday, April 30, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.85. We will update the financials statements for Blackbaud, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 3.40% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Blackbaud stock A Buy?
Blackbaud holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.232 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Blackbaud of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $78.32 ( 0.473%) | $77.95 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for BLKB
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 79.92 | 2.53 % | |
| R2 | 79.31 | 1.74 % | ||
| R1 | 78.93 | 1.26 % | ||
| Current price: | 77.95 | |||
| Support | S1 | 77.71 | -0.314 % | |
| S2 | 77.33 | -0.800 % | ||
| S3 | 76.71 | -1.59 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 82.65 | 6.03 % | |
| R2 | 79.13 | 1.51 % | ||
| R1 | 78.26 | 0.398 % | ||
| Current price | 77.95 | |||
| Support | S1 | 75.97 | -2.54% | |
| S2 | 70.38 | -9.71% | ||
| S3 | 69.18 | -11.25% |
BLKB Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 10, 2020 | Feb 27, 2020 | Mar 13, 2020 | $0.120 | 0.215% |
| 2 | Oct 28, 2019 | Nov 26, 2019 | Dec 13, 2019 | $0.120 | 0.153% |
| 3 | Jul 30, 2019 | Aug 27, 2019 | Sep 13, 2019 | $0.120 | 0.130% |
| 4 | Apr 30, 2019 | May 24, 2019 | Jun 14, 2019 | $0.120 | 0.151% |
| 5 | Feb 06, 2019 | Feb 26, 2019 | Mar 15, 2019 | $0.120 | 0.155% |
FAQ
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