Vanguard Short-term Bond Index Fund ETF Forecast

Hold candidate since Jul 20, 2026 Loss -0.21%

The Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF price fell by -0.0903% on the last day (Wednesday, 22nd Jul 2026) from $77.54 to $77.47. It has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.265% from a day low at $77.46 to a day high of $77.67. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.12% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -64 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $101.51 million.

The ETF is at the lower part of a narrow and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $77.40 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $76.78 and $77.24 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

BSV Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, July 13, 2026, and so far it has fallen 0%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $77.62 and $77.72. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.205 between high and low, or 0.265%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.218%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $70.88 (-8.51%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (BSV) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 23rd

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 23rd we expect Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund to open at $77.53, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $77.39 and $77.55, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.167 (+/-0.22%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.22% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $77.60, some $0.130 (0.17%) from the current price of $77.47, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF A Buy?

Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: -0.587 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 23, 2026 - $77.53 ( 0.0796%).

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