Cocoa Commodity Forecast
Cocoa commodity price fell more than -11.94% Wednesday closing at $7,986.00
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The Cocoa commodity price fell by -11.94% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $9,069.00 to $7,986.00. It has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the commodity fluctuated 0.706% from a day low at $7,930.00 to a day high of $7,986.00. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -20.66% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the commodity, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the commodity. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -5 thousand shares and in total, 20 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $159.70 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the commodity is expected to rise 102.97% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $16,208.87 and $25,364.76 at the end of this 3-month period.
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CCUSD Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Cocoa commodity holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $9,865.29 and $9,564.29. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has fallen -31.62%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Cocoa commodity
On the downside, the commodity finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $7,405.00 and $6,557.00. There is a natural risk involved when a commodity is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the commodity then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Cocoa finds support just below today's level at $7,405.00. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $6,557.00 and $6,256.00.
This commodity may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this commodity is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the commodity moved $56.00 between high and low, or 0.706%. For the last week, the commodity has had daily average volatility of 5.03%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (CCUSD) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Cocoa to open at $7,967.33, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $7,297.72 and $8,674.28, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$688.28 (+/-8.62%) up or down from last closing price. If Cocoa takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 17.24% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $8,018.00 (0.40%) than the support at $7,405.00 (7.28%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Cocoa commodity A Buy?
The Cocoa commodity holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Cocoa will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this commodity.
Current score: -5.438 Strong Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Cocoa of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $7,967.33 ( 0.234%) | $7,986.00 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CCUSD
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 8,023.33 | 0.467 % | |
| R2 | 8,001.94 | 0.200 % | ||
| R1 | 7,988.73 | 0.0341 % | ||
| Current price: | 7,986.00 | |||
| Support | S1 | 7,945.94 | -0.502 % | |
| S2 | 7,932.73 | -0.667 % | ||
| S3 | 7,911.33 | -0.93 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 9,622.00 | 20.49 % | |
| R2 | 8,172.00 | 2.33 % | ||
| R1 | 8,018.00 | 0.401 % | ||
| Current price | 7,986.00 | |||
| Support | S1 | 7,405.00 | -7.28% | |
| S2 | 6,557.00 | -17.89% | ||
| S3 | 6,256.00 | -21.66% |
FAQ
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