RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF Stock Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Apr 30, 2024)
The RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF stock price gained 0.520% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 30th Apr 2024), rising from ₹86.47 to ₹86.92. It has now gained 7 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.09% from a day low at ₹86.43 to a day high of ₹87.37. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.32% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -913 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹207.24 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the upper part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at ₹88.86 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 8.68% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹85.60 and ₹96.57 at the end of this 3-month period.
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CPSEETF.NS Signals & Forecast
The RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at ₹85.42 and ₹81.93. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, March 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 15.02%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at ₹79.91 and ₹79.19. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF finds support just below today's level at ₹79.91. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at ₹79.19 and ₹74.99.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved ₹0.94 between high and low, or 1.09%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.42%.
Since the RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF has been rising for 7 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
Our recommended stop-loss: ₹84.24 (-3.08%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 27 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CPSEETF.NS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 1st we expect RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF to open at ₹86.91, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹84.93 and ₹88.91, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹1.99 (+/-2.29%) up or down from last closing price. If RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.59% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ ₹79.91, some ₹7.01 (8.06%) from the current price of ₹86.92, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF stock A Buy?
RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for RELIANCE MF CPSE ETF (RGESS)/ETF of Wednesday, May 1, 2024
| Fair opening price May 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹86.91 ( 0.0153%) | ₹86.92 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CPSEETF.NS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 87.85 | 1.07 % | |
| R2 | 87.49 | 0.653 % | ||
| R1 | 87.27 | 0.398 % | ||
| Current price: | 86.92 | |||
| Support | S1 | 86.55 | -0.428 % | |
| S2 | 86.33 | -0.684 % | ||
| S3 | 85.97 | -1.10 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 86.92 | |||
| Support | S1 | 79.91 | -8.06% | |
| S2 | 79.19 | -8.89% | ||
| S3 | 74.99 | -13.73% |
FAQ
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