First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - ETF Forecast
Evaluation of First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 17, 2024)
The First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - ETF price gained 0.0420% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 17th Apr 2024), rising from $47.62 to $47.64. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.384% from a day low at $47.52 to a day high of $47.70. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days but is still down by -0.38% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -65 thousand shares and in total, 36 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.72 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF is at the lower part of a narrow and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $47.51 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $47.88 and $48.84 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
FMHI Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.337%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $47.65 and $48.00. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, January 29, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Wednesday, May 10, 2023.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, January 29, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Wednesday, May 10, 2023.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star 12 Months
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, January 29, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Wednesday, May 10, 2023.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
A buy signal from a double bottom formation was found on Wednesday, April 10, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should go up by 2.98% to $49.06 within 45 trading days since signal was issued (Thursday, April 18, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - ETF
First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - finds support from accumulated volume at $47.56 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.182 between high and low, or 0.384%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.350%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $44.92 (-5.72%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 5 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (FMHI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 18th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 18th we expect First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Municipal High Income ETF to open at $47.62, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $47.44 and $47.84, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.202 (+/-0.42%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Municipal High Income ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.85% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $47.68 (0.08%) than the support at $47.56 (0.17%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Municipal High Income ETF ETF A Buy?
First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.074 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Municipal High Income ETF of Thursday, April 18, 2024
| Fair opening price April 18, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $47.62 ( 0.0437%) | $47.64 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FMHI
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 47.80 | 0.339 % | |
| R2 | 47.73 | 0.193 % | ||
| R1 | 47.69 | 0.103 % | ||
| Current price: | 47.64 | |||
| Support | S1 | 47.55 | -0.190 % | |
| S2 | 47.51 | -0.280 % | ||
| S3 | 47.44 | -0.427 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 48.13 | 1.03 % | |
| R2 | 47.75 | 0.231 % | ||
| R1 | 47.68 | 0.0840 % | ||
| Current price | 47.64 | |||
| Support | S1 | 47.56 | -0.168% | |
| S2 | 47.49 | -0.315% | ||
| S3 | 47.15 | -1.03% |
FMHI Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.159 | 0.330% |
| 2 | Feb 20, 2024 | Feb 21, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | $0.159 | 0.331% |
| 3 | Jan 22, 2024 | Jan 23, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | $0.158 | 0.329% |
| 4 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.158 | 0.330% |
| 5 | Nov 20, 2023 | Nov 21, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | $0.158 | 0.341% |
FAQ
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