HKD/JPY Currency Pair Forecast

HKD/JPY currency pair downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on Jun 25, 2024)

HKDJPY Signals & Forecast

The HKD/JPY currency pair holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at JP¥20.32 and JP¥20.09. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 24, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.0771%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. HKD/JPY gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for HKD/JPY currency pair

HKD/JPY finds support from accumulated volume at JP¥20.15 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the currency pair moved JP¥0.0666 between high and low, or 0.327%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 0.448%.

The HKD/JPY currency pair is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some currency pairs may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the currency pair manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥19.97 (-2.33%) (This currency pair has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 84 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 15 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (HKDJPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 26th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 26th we expect HKD/JPY to open at JP¥20.43, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥20.32 and JP¥20.57, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥0.121 (+/-0.59%) up or down from last closing price. If HKD/JPY takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.18% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥20.45 (0.01%) than the support at JP¥20.15 (1.46%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is HKD/JPY currency pair A Buy?

HKD/JPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: 0.348 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for HKD/JPY of Wednesday, June 26, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.